Monday, June 17, 2013
Is the EU Going to Continue to Enlarge?
If an average reader of the EU news were asked for their opinion about the EU enlargement policy, also known as the “most successful EU policy,” he/she would probably say that he/she is tired of it but happy to see that the last week marked the end of it. And his/her answer would be wrong! Ok, at least partly wrong.
The reader would probably base his/her answer on the following three pieces of news. Last week the European Parliament approved the 28th Commissioner coming
from Croatia. This appointment marks the last stage before this “new EU star” joins
the EU next month. Then, the Prime Minister of Iceland made the effort to fly to Brussels in order to inform the Commissioner for Enlargement that his country decided not to join and become another star of the EU. The third news came
from Turkey, country with the longest and most challenged EU membership bid in history.
Turkey is officially part of the EU enlargement agenda, but despite the fact
that the country is an official candidate and has opened membership negotiations,
the most recent developments would suggest that this country is on a safe path
of being taken out of the enlargement agenda. Last week the European Parliament’s motion for a resolution on the situation in this country resulted in a very strong (and anti-EU?) reaction by the Turkish Foreign Minister who said that
Turkey “is not a country which needs advices from a country or a bloc of countries.” This news provides little basis for a hope of rapid progress of Turkey towards a membership in “a bloc of countries?"
The reasoning of the average reader would probably make some sense if they missed the important statement made by Miroslav Lajčák. The Slovak Foreign Minister said that the EU enlargement policy must not be put on hold and must continue. After such a statement the now confused average reader can
only ask: if Croatia is definitely in, if Iceland is definitely out and if
Turkey will continue to be in and out for the decades to come, then what is
left of the EU enlargement agenda?
All in all there are only six other (Western Balkans) countries that were
promised a full membership in the EU. This promise was given by the European Council in 2003 to Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo*, Macedonia, Montenegro and
Serbia. The situation in these countries suggests that they will need more time than Croatia to reform their societies and negotiate the membership in the EU, but in the best-case
scenario they would need the same amount of time. In this best-case scenario Montenegro, for example, after implementing required reforms would be able to join the EU in July
2020, Macedonia would need 9 years from the moment they come to terms with Greece on their name issue (if the deal was made today then the membership could come
in July 2022), Serbia would be able to join in July 2022, Albania and Bosnia
and Herzegovina in 2024/25 and Kosovo* in 2026/27. Despite the interest that Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine expressed it seems that the promise given to the six Western Balkans countries will not be extended to them.
As a proponent of EU membership for the six Western Balkans countries Miroslav Lajčák wanted to remind the average reader who is tired of the EU enlargement that 'old fashioned enlargement' will only end with the full membership of the reminding six countries. Lajčák or someone else might recognise and explain to the citizens of the EU that we might be experiencing the beginning of the end of 'the old fashioned enlargement.' Another aspect that might be explained is that the last round(s) of enlargement to these six countries will probably happen one by one, slowly, without pomp and circumstance and go unnoticed by the average reader. This is because the size of all six countries combined together (land, population and GDP) is almost equal to the size of Romania. With their membership, the size of EU will only increase from 4,381,376 km2 (including Croatia) to 4,589,207 km2 and the EU population from 507,8 million (including Croatia) to 526,1 million. The average reader should and will not worry because the enlargement policy is 'learning-by-doing' experience that incorporates mistakes from previous enlargements in future enlargements. Therefore these six countries will go through the best and the most comprehensive negotiations and reform process in the history of the EU enlargement policy. Their membership will lead to the EU of 34 member states with probably the European Commission of up to 22 Commissioners. The benefit of their membership in the EU will (only) be positive as the EU will once again prove to be a peace project capable to reform (even) the countries with history of communism, war, state building, corruption and organised crime. Moreover their membership will mean that the EU was capable to respond to expectations made by the Nobel Peace Prize and make up for the failed promises to these six nations given by the European Communities in 1990s. Most interestingly, by the time of the second half of 2020s and emergence of the EU of 34 we might also see the emergence of the “new fashioned Euro enlargement” with a focus of media and substantial debate on enlarging and enhancing the Euro zone.
As a proponent of EU membership for the six Western Balkans countries Miroslav Lajčák wanted to remind the average reader who is tired of the EU enlargement that 'old fashioned enlargement' will only end with the full membership of the reminding six countries. Lajčák or someone else might recognise and explain to the citizens of the EU that we might be experiencing the beginning of the end of 'the old fashioned enlargement.' Another aspect that might be explained is that the last round(s) of enlargement to these six countries will probably happen one by one, slowly, without pomp and circumstance and go unnoticed by the average reader. This is because the size of all six countries combined together (land, population and GDP) is almost equal to the size of Romania. With their membership, the size of EU will only increase from 4,381,376 km2 (including Croatia) to 4,589,207 km2 and the EU population from 507,8 million (including Croatia) to 526,1 million. The average reader should and will not worry because the enlargement policy is 'learning-by-doing' experience that incorporates mistakes from previous enlargements in future enlargements. Therefore these six countries will go through the best and the most comprehensive negotiations and reform process in the history of the EU enlargement policy. Their membership will lead to the EU of 34 member states with probably the European Commission of up to 22 Commissioners. The benefit of their membership in the EU will (only) be positive as the EU will once again prove to be a peace project capable to reform (even) the countries with history of communism, war, state building, corruption and organised crime. Moreover their membership will mean that the EU was capable to respond to expectations made by the Nobel Peace Prize and make up for the failed promises to these six nations given by the European Communities in 1990s. Most interestingly, by the time of the second half of 2020s and emergence of the EU of 34 we might also see the emergence of the “new fashioned Euro enlargement” with a focus of media and substantial debate on enlarging and enhancing the Euro zone.
Super interesting, I really need to stay on top of what's going on here. I have not delved into the Balkans much, although my voice is playing on Fox promos all over. ;)
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