Tuesday, May 14, 2013
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| To be honest Dave you should be a bit nervous. |
Last Wednesday, Queen Elizabeth II gave her annual speech setting out her government‘s programme for the coming year. Before you start puffing with righteous indignation at how undemocratic this is, you should know that the speech she read was written by the Prime Minister. Parliament then passes the speech. Which should be a formality – should it not? Well, what makes a British Prime Minister give his Party free reign to either abstain from or vote against its own legislative agenda? Answer: the bastards.
I wouldn't recommend spending too much of your time thinking about the policy conundrums faced by the British Conservative Party – it can make your head hurt. Surely there are better things to think, read and write about: like more Europe. Unfortunately, this is not a luxury afforded to a Brit in Brussels these days.
In January Dave told the world (well mainly the Conservative Party) in his Bloomberg speech that he wasn't happy and that he wanted less Europe; but that he still wanted a bit of Europe in his life. On making such pronouncements he was hailed as brave and visionary by his Party and UKIP's fox, I was thought, had been well and truly stuffed.
Then two things happened, his colleagues realised what he'd really said – we'll only have a referendum if we win an election that I probably won't win and if I do I'll probably present a weasely compromise as a triumph anyway – and UKIP achieved two thumping election coups in quick succession. Now UKIP look set to win the European Parliamentary elections in 2014.
The problem Dave faces is that he has quite unambiguously said that, "I believe something very deeply. That Britain’s national interest is best served in a flexible, adaptable and open European Union and that such a European Union is best with Britain in it." Whereas others have decided that there's no longer any hiding of the fact that they don't want any Europe in their life at all; excluding that is, their holiday villas in Tuscany and Provence: "stop the continent I want to get off!" is the message now spluttering out of the Conservative Party.
This is not just some back bench rebellion, it goes all the way to the top now. Party grandees such as Lord Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, has proclaimed that he's changed his mind on the EU since his time in a position of responsibility and decided we're better off out. Two close cabinet allies of Cameron's (and wannabe future leaders) have even said that if a referendum were held today they would vote to leave.
Dave's strategy has misfired spectacularly. It was both bold and a messy compromise that was never going to satisfy those it was designed for. Broadly speaking, those who are desperate for a referendum are those who see it as a means to an end and one end alone: Brexit. Cameron threw a bone thinking that he would keep the Europhobes happy; instead he simply wet their appetite and emboldened them. For the first time they genuinely think that they can win.
So now it comes to this, Cameron has conceded that members of his Party can vote against their own Queen’s speech and Ministers can even abstain. Poor Dave tries so badly to be loved by his Party, but is instead losing everyone's respect. Fear not, Machiavelli will not make a guest appearance at this point; but it will suffice to say that Cameron’s troops would much rather have a leader that they respected and even feared a bit than one they could merrily chillax with over Sunday lunch and a bottle of Beaujolais.
Where do the bastards fit into all of this? When facing cabinet revolt over the Maastricht Treaty from Europhobes in 1993, Conservative Prime Minister John Major labelled such trouble-makers as "the bastards". It was taken as a sign of the fundamental weakness and fragility that had beset the government: it was not one that could be taken seriously. Unfortunately for Dave the bastards are back and this time think that they've got history on their side.
I wouldn't recommend spending too much of your time thinking about the policy conundrums faced by the British Conservative Party – it can make your head hurt. Surely there are better things to think, read and write about: like more Europe. Unfortunately, this is not a luxury afforded to a Brit in Brussels these days.
In January Dave told the world (well mainly the Conservative Party) in his Bloomberg speech that he wasn't happy and that he wanted less Europe; but that he still wanted a bit of Europe in his life. On making such pronouncements he was hailed as brave and visionary by his Party and UKIP's fox, I was thought, had been well and truly stuffed.
Then two things happened, his colleagues realised what he'd really said – we'll only have a referendum if we win an election that I probably won't win and if I do I'll probably present a weasely compromise as a triumph anyway – and UKIP achieved two thumping election coups in quick succession. Now UKIP look set to win the European Parliamentary elections in 2014.
The problem Dave faces is that he has quite unambiguously said that, "I believe something very deeply. That Britain’s national interest is best served in a flexible, adaptable and open European Union and that such a European Union is best with Britain in it." Whereas others have decided that there's no longer any hiding of the fact that they don't want any Europe in their life at all; excluding that is, their holiday villas in Tuscany and Provence: "stop the continent I want to get off!" is the message now spluttering out of the Conservative Party.
This is not just some back bench rebellion, it goes all the way to the top now. Party grandees such as Lord Lawson, former Chancellor of the Exchequer, has proclaimed that he's changed his mind on the EU since his time in a position of responsibility and decided we're better off out. Two close cabinet allies of Cameron's (and wannabe future leaders) have even said that if a referendum were held today they would vote to leave.
Dave's strategy has misfired spectacularly. It was both bold and a messy compromise that was never going to satisfy those it was designed for. Broadly speaking, those who are desperate for a referendum are those who see it as a means to an end and one end alone: Brexit. Cameron threw a bone thinking that he would keep the Europhobes happy; instead he simply wet their appetite and emboldened them. For the first time they genuinely think that they can win.
So now it comes to this, Cameron has conceded that members of his Party can vote against their own Queen’s speech and Ministers can even abstain. Poor Dave tries so badly to be loved by his Party, but is instead losing everyone's respect. Fear not, Machiavelli will not make a guest appearance at this point; but it will suffice to say that Cameron’s troops would much rather have a leader that they respected and even feared a bit than one they could merrily chillax with over Sunday lunch and a bottle of Beaujolais.
Where do the bastards fit into all of this? When facing cabinet revolt over the Maastricht Treaty from Europhobes in 1993, Conservative Prime Minister John Major labelled such trouble-makers as "the bastards". It was taken as a sign of the fundamental weakness and fragility that had beset the government: it was not one that could be taken seriously. Unfortunately for Dave the bastards are back and this time think that they've got history on their side.
